Thursday, November 3, 2011

Urbanation Press Release: Q3-2011 Condominium Market - Toronto CMA

MEDIA CONTACT: Vicki Griffiths
Vicbar Marketing Limited
416-510-0073

Urbanation Reports a Hot Condo Market for Q3
Yearly new condo sales paced to smash 2007 sales record

TORONTO – November 3, 2011:  Urbanation Inc., the leading source of information and analysis on the Toronto condominium market since 1981, today released its Q3-2011 market overview.

The new condo market in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) continues its torrid sales pace, with Q3-2011 marking the fourth consecutive quarter in which sales topped 5,000, with 6,318 new condo sales. That marks an increase of 66 per cent over Q3-2010 (3,805) but a decrease from the record high sales of Q2-2011 (9,445).

There have been a total of 27,244 sales in the past 12 months, while new condo sales through the first nine months of 2011 have already surpassed the 2010 year-end total (20,964 versus 20,491).

Approximately 58 per cent of the CMA sales in Q3 were realized in 33 new site openings (3,694 sales, a 56 per cent absorption rate) as newly launched projects continue to sell well and attract new purchasers.

“With these unprecedented sales successes continuing and with the increased investor activity, there are concerns that pricing will, or is, rising too rapidly on speculative buying decisions,” says Ben Myers, Urbanation Executive Vice President and Editor. “However, annual index price growth remains below the five-year average of 8.1 per cent, at 7.4 per cent in the new market, and equal to the five-year average in the resale market (7.6 per cent increase).”

Myers notes, however, that some factors could mask the fact that prices are rising too quickly, including the influx of lower-priced condominium projects in the ‘905’ and outer ‘416’ areas, which can pull down the overall average index price in the Toronto CMA. Key areas in the CMA are experiencing year-over-year index price inflation that is above the five-year CMA average, including Mississauga (10.2 per cent), the former City of Toronto (9.0 per cent), and Markham (8.6 per cent).

In response to concerns about the amount of investment activity in the Toronto CMA, Myers points out that data indicate the investor market is comprised of more long-term micro-landlords than short-term speculators.

“The majority of buyers that do not intend to occupy the suite they purchased are adopting long-term investment strategies and avoiding short-term market price fluctuations resulting from potential over supply or other factors,” he says.

Urbanation tracked a total of 346 new condominium projects in Q3-2011 (an increase of 18 per cent annually). Unsold inventory increased 7 per cent quarterly in Q3 to 13,259 units, but is virtually unchanged annually from the 13,257 unsold units in Q3-2010.

There were 5,364 construction starts and 1,607 completions in Q3-2011, while the 42,573 units under construction are a record high for the Toronto CMA.

But projected population growth, cultural changes, longer commuting times, shortage of land, greenbelt legislation and high-density targets within the Places to Grow provincial initiative are all precipitating a fundamental shift away from low-rise housing, Myers says.

“All of these reasons will continue to tip-the-scale towards apartment living.”

Looking ahead, Urbanation predicts that the CMA will smash the annual sales record of 22,654 recorded in 2007, with approximately 26,000 sales expected by years-end.

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ABOUT URBANATION

Urbanation is Canada’s leading condominium market research company. Since 1981, Urbanation has analyzed the Toronto condominium market, publishing the “industry bible” – Urbanation’s Condominium Market Survey. This quarterly report tracks new, resale and future condominium projects. The newest report from Urbanation is UrbanRental, which tracks activity in the condominium rental market. Urbanation also provides the development community with essential consulting services, which include site and topic specific market studies and surveys.


You Tube Channel: Urbanationca 

Thursday, September 29, 2011

NO Bubble Folks

Urbanation is quoted in the Toronto Star today saying that there is no bubble in the Toronto CMA condo market (see article here).

We found it interesting that Manhattan based consultant Jonathan Miller thinks Toronto is in a bubble (not sure why someone in NYC would know more about Toronto's condo market than Urbanation, CMHC, and TREB analysts that have all said we are not in a bubble?).

According to Wikipedia a real estate bubble is "characterized by rapid increases in valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels and then decline"

In Q2-2011, pricing in the new condominium market was up 7.5% annually according to Urbanation's Condominium Market Survey. Is that a rapid increase?

Pricing in the new condo market was greater than 7.5% annually in:
1997: 1 quarter
1998: 2 quarters
1999: 2 quarters
2000: 4 quarters
2001: 3 quarters
2002: 1 quarter
2006: 4 quarters
2007: 3 quarters
2008: 3 quarters
2009: 1 quarter
2010: 3 quarters

So if people think we are in a bubble based off price increases (the definition of a bubble), why didn't the "bubble burst" in any of those 11 years mentioned? Why didn't things "end badly"?

Perhaps there is another definition of bubble that Urbanation is not aware of?

The big concern must be the increased level of investor activity. People seemed to be scared of the so-called "speculative activity" in the new condo market, however the resale condo market is still very strong and most of the newly registered buildings have experienced very strong sales-to-listings ratios as these higher priced investor units are snapped up by end-users. The lease-to-listings ratio in the condo rental market is sky high, with bidding wars occuring for larger units.

Urbanation will be the first to bring to our clients attention any data that would point to a future failure in the market.

Subscribe to Urbanation today and follow our data and analysis on the Toronto condominim apartment market for $8,750 annually.

Thursday, August 4, 2011

URBANATION REPORTS A RECORD-BREAKING SECOND QUARTER FOR 2011

A major influx of more than 9,000 units from 44 new projects helps smash multiple records

TORONTO – August 4, 2011:  Urbanation Inc., the leading source of information and analysis on the Toronto condominium market since 1981, today released its Q2-2011 market overview.

The condominium market in the Toronto CMA smashed nearly every existing record in Q2-2011. The most noteworthy record was for quarterly new condo sales: 9,455 units sold in Q2, topping the previous record high of 6,997 set in Q2-2007 by a whopping 35 per cent.

Q2-2011 also set records for the number of active projects, active units, sold index price, unsold index price, new condominium launches, units and projects under construction, and quarterly unit registrations.

There have been 24,731 new condominium sales over the past 12 months, topping the previous record high of 22,654 set in Q4-2007 by 9 per cent. There were 39,196 condominium units under construction in the Toronto CMA in 153 projects in Q2-2011, a high water mark for the CMA. Just 16 per cent of the 78,142 units in 306 active condominium apartment projects were unsold at the end of the second quarter, a record low.

“These results for Q2 are remarkable, but they will likely bring about more talk of the sustainability of the condominium market,” says Ben Myers, Urbanation Executive Vice President and Editor. “But it’s clear that the market is not experiencing rapid increases in pricing, which is the hallmark of a real estate bubble. The market is very healthy, as condominium resale activity remains strong, and results from our new UrbanRental report show that condominium rents have improved over the first quarter.”

Both the new and resale condominium markets saw increases in index prices, with unsold pricing in the new condo market rising from $529 psf in Q2-2010 to $552 psf in Q2, an increase of 4.3 per cent. The resale index price increased from $370 psf to $391, or 5.7 per cent. Additionally, index rents improved 5.5 per cent year-over-year.

The high level of investor activity in the market has also been the subject of some negative attention from the media. But, says Myers, the ‘occupancy intentions’ of buyers should be of little concern so long as the resale market continues to absorb the higher priced newly registered units and condominium rental rates remain strong.

Urbanation attributes the record-setting second quarter sales to the major influx of new product: 44 new project launches introduced 9,182 units to the market. The new openings in the ‘905’ region actually had a higher absorption rate than the ‘416’area projects.

“The 905 has experienced blowout sales successes in Q2, as did several of the 30 openings in the 416” says Myers.

The resale condominium market is also on target for a record year. Similar to the new market, the resale condo market was boosted by the addition of new supply. A record 7,815 units registered in Q2-2011, nearly as many as the previous three quarters combined.

Looking ahead, Urbanation is forecasting 25,000 new condominium sales and 17,000 resale transactions for 2011.


CONTACT:    Vicki Griffiths
                        Vicbar Marketing
                        416-510-0073


ABOUT URBANATION

Urbanation is Canada’s leading condominium market research company. Since 1981, Urbanation has analyzed the Toronto condominium market, publishing the “industry bible” – Urbanation’s Condominium Market Survey. This quarterly report tracks new, resale and future condominium projects (at an annual cost of $8,750). The newest report from Urbanation is UrbanRental, which tracks activity in the condominium rental market (at an annual cost of $1,275). Urbanation also provides the development community with essential consulting services, which include site and topic specific market studies and surveys.

Friday, July 8, 2011

2-8 Gloucester Developer Sets the Record Straight (No pun intended!)

Urbanation posted a link to an online article from Xtra! - Canada's Gay and Lesbian News yesterday, see the article here: http://www.xtra.ca/public/Toronto/Condo_proposal_could_force_out_Fly_Fire_on_the_East_Side-10455.aspx

Angel Developments contacted Urbanation to clarify some of the concerns / issues raised in the article. The developer indicated that "The designated Masonic Hall is being wholly-retained without any internal modifications, and the smaller listed property adjacent to the lane is being incorporated in the development as well" and that the project will not just retain the facades of these buildings but the entire original buildings.

Angel Developments also mentioned that the clubs would not be forced to close and that “we’re currently in the process of discussing a potential lease extension with the owners, while also providing them with clarity as the process unfolds so that their eventual transition away from the property is as seamless as possible”.
Urbanation would like to thank the developer for passing this info on. Transparency in the development industry is much needed to quell misconceptions and rumours from taking hold of the public and causing unneeded headaches.
At Urbanation we are very much looking forward to the transformation of Yonge Street in the coming years by Angel, Lanterra, Mod and Canderel.
Have a great weekend.

Monday, June 6, 2011

Entertainment District Condo Tour

Urbanation and the Ontario Home Builders' Association have annually co-hosted a high-rise condominium tour. Typically we've packed onto a bus and toured Toronto's best developments, however this year, we're going green and walking!

The tour will visit the top Entertainment District projects:
Tableau by Malibu, Urban Capital & Alit
Bisha by Lifetime & Ink
Studio by Aspen Ridge
Pinnacle on Adelaide by Pinnacle
Peter Street Condos by CentreCourt

The tour will start at Empire Communities condo store and discuss their Oxygen project (also by developers Identity & Stal).

The cost of the tour is $199 if you sign up before June 17th and includes a FREE lunch at Marcel's Zazou Lounge on King Street's famous "restaurant row".

Pick up a sales package and hear from the project representative(s), as they discuss how the project came together. There will also be a question period at each site.

Urbanation's Ben Myers will host the tour and discuss the happenings in the Toronto CMA condo market, as well as highlight the new condo projects coming soon to the entertainment district.

Limited space is available, so if you are interested go HERE and click on "Ben Myers" to indicate your interest via email. If there is still space available, we will send you the PDF sign-up sheet.

Urbanation would also like to thank the sponsors:
Masco
Rogers
Union Gas

Hope to see you on the tour!

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

UrbanRental Report Launch a Tremendous Success

On Tuesday, May 17, 2011 Urbanation Inc. released its inaugural condominium apartment rental market overview for Q1-2011. The event took place at the Westin Prince Hotel and a packed house of over 80 brokers, developers, lenders, architects, land owners and consultants showed up to get the latest results on the condo rental market and the new condo market.




Released quarterly, the rental market overview will provide a wealth of information on the trends and changes in rental rates in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA). See municipal results highlighted below from 24 Hours publication:


Other highlights of the inaugural rental market overview show that, among leased condominium apartments in the Toronto CMA, index rents increased by just 0.8% quarterly in Q1-2011, from $2.09 per square foot, to $2.11 per square foot. The average condominium unit leased in Q1-2011 was 800 square feet with an average rent of $1,686 per month

Overall, the new UrbanRental report for Q1-2011 shows that demand and the number of leased units in the condominium apartment rental market remains high, while the average days-on-the-market is low. Go to www.urbanation.ca/UrbanRental for more info and to subscribe.





For more articles regarding the UrbanRental report: 
Check out our latest Press Release.


Condo Maintenance Fees

In preparing data for a investing in real estate book by Brian Persaud of Real Experts (http://www.realexpertsinc.com/) we took a look at condo maintenance fees. We were also inspired to write this post based on an interesting article in the Globe this weekend on condo fees.

Urbanation looked at a sample of 90 new condominium apartment projects that were active in Q1-2006. These condo projects had an average (forecasted or projected) monthly maintenance fee of $0.40 psf, ranging from a low of $0.27 psf at St. Gabriel Village - Phase I (marketed as a green condo with Wind Turbines) to $0.67 at 100 Yorkville - East Building (a luxury project).

The average resale maintenance fee over the past year (Q2-2010 to Q1-2011) at these projects was $0.52 psf, or a 30% increase compared to 2006 (~6% annual increase). This is something all condo purchasers should keep in mind when budgeting.

The largest increases were found at St. Gabriel Village - Phase I at 91% (up to $0.52 psf - perhaps the green features were not saving as much as anticipated?), Radio City I at 86% ($0.35 to $0.65 psf), and The Fountains of Edenbridge at 81% ($0.36 to $0.65 psf).

Monarch Group's EQ1 and EQ2 in Scarborough have seen maintenance fees increase by just 6% and 4% respectively. Monarch has the reputation of including realistic occupancy dates and maintenance fees in their new project brochures and sales packages.

This type of data analysis will be part of Urbanation newest report "UrbanRental" and should be followed by any serious investor, go to www.urbanation.ca/UrbanRental for more details.

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Urbanation Launches Inaugural Condominium Rental Market Overview

NEWS RELEASE

CONTACT:    Vicki Griffiths
                        Vicbar Marketing Limited
                        416-510-0073

TORONTO – May 17, 2011:  Urbanation Inc., the leading source of information and analysis on the Toronto condominium market since 1981, today released its inaugural condominium apartment rental market overview for Q1-2011.

“We are excited to introduce this badly needed resource to the Toronto condominium market,” says Ben Myers, Urbanation Executive Vice President and Editor.

The UrbanRental report targets condominium developers, lenders, real estate brokers, investors, and anyone in the rental apartment business. Released quarterly, the rental market overview will provide a wealth of information on the trends and changes in rental rates in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA).

“Until now, there has been a real void in the market for comprehensive data about condominium rental units across the CMA, especially on per square foot rental rates,” says Myers.  “With the increasing number of small condo units being bought by investors, this report will be essential for anyone who owns and rents a suite.”

Over 50% of new condominiums sold in the Toronto CMA are purchased by investors (buyers who do not intend to occupy their units) based on information compiled by Urbanation. With nearly 18,000 new condominium suites selling annually over the past five years, Urbanation estimates that an additional 7,000 suites will be added to the condominium rental pool annually over the next few years.

Highlights of the inaugural rental market overview show that, among leased condominium apartments in the Toronto CMA, index rents increased by just 0.8 per cent quarterly in the first quarter of 2011, from $2.09 per square foot, to $2.11 per square foot.  The average condominium unit leased in Q1-2011 was 800 square feet with an average rent of $1,686 per month.

Because Urbanation expects a record year for condominium apartment registrations in 2011, that additional supply is expected to keep prices from escalating. Index rents are up just 1.1% annually in the rental condominium market in comparison to 3.5% for resale condominiums and 8.4% for new condominiums.

“The price of new and resale condo units in the CMA continues to climb. Using our report, investors can monitor rental trends and figures to determine when and where to make a purchase that will offer the best return on their investment,” says Myers.

Overall, the new UrbanRental report for Q1-2011 shows that demand and the number of leased units in the condominium apartment rental market remain high, while the average days-on-the-market is low. Urbanation predicts the trend going forward will be continued flat rate index rent increases, and that index price appreciation in the new and resale condo market will outpace that of index rents.

Go to www.urbanation.ca/UrbanRental for more details.

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ABOUT URBANATION

Urbanation is Canada’s leading condominium market research company. Since 1981, Urbanation has analyzed the Toronto condominium market, publishing the “industry bible” – Urbanation’s Condominium Market Survey. This quarterly report tracks new, resale and future condominium projects. Urbanation also provides the development community with essential consulting services, which include site and topic specific market studies and surveys.



Monday, May 9, 2011

URBANATION PROJECTS BUOYANT FIRST QUARTER IS PRELUDE TO STRONGER SECOND QUARTER IN CONDO SALES


NEWS RELEASE

CONTACT:     Vicki Griffiths
                        Vicbar Marketing Limited
                        416-510-0073

TORONTO – May 9, 2011:  Urbanation Inc., the leading source of information and analysis on the Toronto condominium market since 1981, today released its Q1-2011 market overview.

The Toronto CMA new condominium market kicked off 2011with a bang, with 5,201 sales. That was just 214 sales shy of the record first quarter result from 2010. The resale market also showed a strong start in Q1, with 3,952 units sold, just 338 fewer than last year’s first quarter record of 4,290.

“These near record sales in the first quarter of 2011 mark a prelude to an even more vibrant second quarter,” says Ben Myers, Urbanation Executive Vice President and Editor. 

The most noteworthy result in the market was the 7,550 construction starts in the first quarter, while there are now a record number of suites under construction in the Toronto CMA at 37,706.  At the end of Q1-2011, over half of the 284 new condominium apartment projects and 73,643 units were under construction.  Just 17 percent of the new condominium suites in the CMA were unsold (12,272 units) matching the record low set in the first quarters of 2010 and 1986.

“This momentum will continue into the second quarter, when an estimated 45 new condominium projects, representing 9,500 units, will launch,” says Myers. “That’s a healthy increase over the just 23 new condominium towers launched in the second quarter of 2010.”

Meanwhile, the 17 new projects that opened in Q1 sold 63 percent of their 3,768 total units. That number far surpasses the average absorption rate for new projects in their opening quarters between 2006 and 2010 (49 percent).

Prices also climbed. The average price per square foot of unsold product in the Toronto CMA new condominium market in the first quarter increased 3 percent from Q4-2010, and 7 percent annually, to $543 psf.  Unsold index pricing was also up in the former City of Toronto to $650 psf and the Downtown Core to $739 psf.

Prices in the resale market also edged up by 2 percent over Q4-2010 to $382 psf, increasing the average resale index price in the Toronto CMA by the largest quarterly margin since the fourth quarter of 2009. Resale index pricing in the former City of Toronto was $509 psf with Downtown Core prices at $513 psf in Q1-2011.

Resale supply also declined, dropping far lower than the record 10,997 listings from one year ago to 7,490 resale listings in Q1-2011.

“The major infusion of new units in the second quarter of this year should moderate pricing increases, but Urbanation expects near record quarterly sales in Q2-2011” Myers added, “and an elevated level of project registrations, will also keep resale pricing increases temperate”.


ABOUT URBANATION

Urbanation is Canada’s leading condominium market research company. Since 1981, Urbanation has analyzed the Toronto condominium market, publishing the “industry bible” – Urbanation’s Condominium Market Survey. This quarterly report tracks new, resale and future condominium projects. Urbanation also provides the development community with essential consulting services, which include site and topic specific market studies and surveys.

urbanationinc.blogspot.com

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Why Should Developers Provide Information to Urbanation?

We received an email from a developer yesterday informing us that they were not going to release quarterly sales data to us (their policy) - this was the inspiration for the blog post today.

Urbanation has been tracking the results in the high-rise condominium apartment market since 1981 and we have built up strong relationships with the developer and broker community and get cooperation from over 90% of the industry, but there are always a few tough nuts to crack. We don't think this post will change anyone's mind, but we want this information on the benefits of our data out there.

From the standpoint of the developer that does not want to release figures, we understand that they don't want to give their competition a leg up, to understand what they are doing, but the benefits of what we do for the industry far outweigh this concern in our minds. Seven of the top 10 developers in 2010 by total condo sales subscribe to Urbanation, and of the remaining 3, most of their sites are represented by a broker that subscribes to our reports, so one could conclude that the sharing of information has certainly not hurt them.

Here is a nice long list of why developers should cooperate with Urbanation:

1) Construction lending: The majority of the schedule A banks and many of the top secondary lenders including the larger private equity funds use our reports when they determine which projects to provide construction financing to. These clients use both the macro level analysis and the micro level project data - without this type of secondary data available in the market by an independent third party, lenders would be much more reluctant to release the funds that they do, or the rates would be much higher.

2) Mortgage Insurance: If you take a look at the suite mix for downtown condo projects these days, you will see that most projects are targeting first time buyers. For the majority of buyers purchasing their first units, they require mortgage insurance. The major mortgage insurers in this country use our reports in many of the same ways as the lenders above.

3) The HST: Urbanation data was used in the fight against the province during the finalization of the details regarding HST.

4) 3 Bedroom units: The City of Toronto reviewed Urbanation data on the slow absorption rate among three bedroom units within condo buildings in the City. Higher three bedroom shares might have been required without the assistance of Urbanation.

5) Brokers: The majority of condominium developers do not have in-house sales teams; they rely on brokerages to sell their units. Many of these top new condominium brokerages subscribe to Urbanation and use this data to help set pricing at projects all over the Toronto CMA. If you underprice your project, you are leaving money on the table, but the greater sin is overpricing your project. Reducing pricing is not generally an option outside of offering incentives and relaunching a project is very expensive. Slow selling projects and projects that do not obtain financing for several years are not only detrimental to the developer, but to other developers in the area as well. Cancelled projects and projects that take years to build shed a negative light on condo buying, and make a scary purchase for many first-time buyers that much scarier - no one wants their deposit held up for years on end, only to be released from the deal three years later when prices are 15% higher. So helping brokers set correct pricing at your competitors development can actually be beneficial to you! The funny thing is, a very high percentage of downtown condo projects are represented by just two brokerage firms, which obviously have more in-depth sales and pricing information than Urbanation publishes on these projects!

6) Suppliers: Many suppliers in the industry want to keep tabs on both the macro level analysis when making hiring and expansion decisions (and determine their market share) but also the micro level data as they target new clients though our 'proposed' or future condos section. Suppliers also like to know when projects are expected to complete so they know at what point they will be required to deliver their product or services. If your suppliers are more profitable and better organized, they can pass these savings off to you.

7) Valuation: our data is utilized by appraisers (private and public), cost consultants and developers to determine what a unit, a project or a piece of land is worth. Reliable information prevents  firms from overpaying when purchasing a property or when paying taxes on it!

8) Mortgages: many lenders have policies about how they approve small or large condominium units, however as the market has changed, so has the lender's policies. One bank emailed me and said of the work we did for them "We made some significant policy changes as a result of what you provided so thanks very much." Do you think purchasers obtaining mortgages easier is a benefit? We do.

We could certainly keep going for several more points but this post is getting a little long!

Urbanation had a great conversation with Tricon Capital, a firm that regularly uses Urbanation data, they said we produce the best real estate research publication in North America (their firm is littered with the industry's brightest minds: http://www.triconcapital.com/our_company_team.html - see Harvard, Richard Ivey School of Business, Columbia Law, Osgoode Law at U of T). One of their principals suggested we print a list of the developers that don't cooperate and distribute it amongst the industry!

We wouldn't go that far, but hopefully these developers see that we are not just a firm helping their competitors spy on them, but truly a boon to the health of the condominium apartment industry in the Toronto and surrounding area.

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Branded Spaces

Urbanation had a conversation with Amy Veneer of the Globe and Mail last week and we discussed condominium fitness rooms - we were so intrigued by the conversation, we decided to blog about it. Amy brought to our attention that The Benchmark Group has already begun branding condo fitness rooms under the banner “Movement Haus”, and has added a number of Toronto's top developers.

The Benchmark Group has started providing consulting services to developers, architects and interior designers at the outset of the project to help properly design and equip the fitness amenities. The principal of The Benchmark Group Mark Stables (through his days as a personal trainer) realized that many condo fitness rooms were ill-equipped, poorly lit, poorly ventilated and poorly laid out. It might be worthwile to look out for Movement Haus branded fitness rooms in upcoming condo projects.

The branding of everything within a condo is the natural next step, as the market is ultra competitive (there were 286 active condominium apartment projects in the Toronto CMA at the end of Q4-2010 according to Urbanation's Condominium Market Survey), and developers need to set their project apart from the competition.

Many projects boast their all star team of consultants, be it a Baker Real Estate or Milborne Real Estate for the sales, Architects Alliance or Page + Steele/IBI Group Architects for the building design, Cecconi Simone or Brian Gluckstein for the interiors, or LA Ads or Montana Steele for the advertising. Many projects have even advertised the furniture used in common areas, be it Armani Casa or pieces from the Art Shoppe. Developers want to associate their name with these trusted brands, so purchasers can be assured of the quality and service that these brands have previously delivered.

Will we soon have a branded service firm that handles the concierge services? How about your guest suite managed by the W Hotel Condo Group? How about the games room brought to you by Dave & Busters? How about the Theatre room brought to you by AMC or Cineplex - could happen?

If these branded spaces do happen, trust that Urbanation will be there to track them!


Monday, March 7, 2011

Real Estate Forecasting

Urbanation has been tracking Toronto condominium apartment market statistics for almost 30 years, and we take pride in the quality of our data. We realize our clients review our data when making critical decisions, and we put great effort into the accuracy of our figures and our forecasts.

A lot of research firms (and non-research firms) have made condominium apartment forecasts in recent years, many of which get picked up in the media. How does an individual or firm wade through these forecasts and determine what research company to key in on? To be clearer, how accurate are these forecasts?

To determine the accuracy of Urbanation's 2010 forecast (from December 2009), here is our "2010 Forecast Report Card":

Combined New and Resale Condominium Apartment Sales
Forecast: 37,000
Actual: 37,041
Difference: 0.1%
Grade: A+

New condo sales
Forecast: 19,000
Actual: 20,491
Difference: 7.8%
Grade: A

Resale condo sales
Forecast: 18,000
Actual: 16,550
Difference: 8.1%
Grade: A

New units launched in 2010
Forecast: 21,000
Actual: 20,051
Difference: 4.5%
Grade: A+

Completions
Forecast: 17,000 (see early 2010 Globe Article link to our forecast and other research firm's predictions here)
Actual: 15,882
Difference: 6.6%
Grade: A

Starts
Forecast: 14,000
Actual: 18,221
Difference: 30.2%
Grade: D

One bad grade in the bunch - we did not anticipate lenders making construction funds as easily obtainable, especially after 2009 when just 8,392 units started!

We encourage other firms to publish their forecast report cards to bring better transparency and accountability into the field of real estate research.

For more information on Urbanation's quarterly Condominium Market Survey, please visit http://www.urbanation.ca/ and follow us on Twitter for condominium updates and news www.twitter.com/urbanation

Monday, January 31, 2011

Q4-2010 Press Release

NEWS RELEASE                
Contact:          David Eisenstadt / Beth Merrick
                        The Communications Group Inc.
                        416.696.9900 ext. 36 or ext. 40
                        deisenstadt@tcgpr.com / bmerrick@tcgpr.com

URBANATION SAYS “FOURTH QUARTER FLURRY” DRIVES 2010 TORONTO CONDO MARKET TO NEAR-RECORD SALES

Q4 2010’s 6,280 new Toronto CMA unit sales were the 4th highest quarterly total on record: with aid of robust resale activity, 2010 market powers to strong finish


FINAL – TORONTO – January 31, 2011…Urbanation Inc., the leading source of information and analysis on the Toronto condominium market since 1981, today released its Q4-2010 market overview.

For the second consecutive year, the Toronto CMA new-condominium market finished with a bang. A flurry of sales activity in Q4-2010 resulted in 6,280 new condominium units sold in the quarter. This represents an impressive rebound from the 3,805 new unit sales in the preceding Q3-2010.

Said Urbanation Executive Vice President and Editor Ben Myers, “The Q4-2010 new unit sales were much higher than expected, spurred by tremendous results at a number of new project openings in the City of Toronto. In the end, 2010’s total annual new and resale condominium sales of 37,041 units were just three per cent shy of the historic 2007 record of 38,306 units sold.

Compared to 2009, 2010’s sales represent an increase of 20 per cent over 2009’s 30,939 new and resale condominium units sold. 2010 sales soared 27 per cent over 2008’s sales of 27,187 new and resale volume.

Myers added, “Even more impressive than the sales results were the number of construction starts, a Toronto CMA record of 18,221 high-rise condominiums started in 2010, more than twice as many as 2009. There are now 34,548 units under construction in the CMA in 132 projects”.

The key to Q4-2010’s strength, and the overall 2010 annual sales success, seems to have been a combination of developers continuing to restrain pricing at new project launches to appeal both to the general market, and to investors looking to acquire suites as future rental properties.

A 2010 Urbanation survey of condominium industry professionals indicates that their major concern with regard to 2011 sales levels will be affordability. In the Toronto CMA overall, the unsold unit index price for new projects (the average asking price of available product per square foot), rose eight per cent annually from $493 to $530 psf in Q4-2010. The unsold index price in the former City of Toronto was $646 psf in Q4-2010 and $723 psf in the Downtown Core.

Pricing in the resale market has flattened in recent quarters, but has risen six per cent annually from $352 psf in Q4-2009 to $374 psf in the fourth quarter of 2010. Resale index pricing in the former City was $487 psf in Q4-2010 and $518 psf in the Downtown Core. There were 3,538 condominium apartment resale transactions in the fourth quarter in the CMA, with the average unit selling for $339,000.

“Urbanation expects 15,000 to 17,000 new units to launch in 2011, with approximately 16,000 sales, representing a slight drop-off following the ‘boom’ conditions in 2010” said Myers, “Moderate growth is expected in the resale condominium market, and Urbanation is forecasting 17,000 resales in 2011.”

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ABOUT URBANATION

Urbanation is Canada's leading condominium market research company.  Since 1981, Urbanation has analyzed the Toronto condominium market, publishing the “industry bible” – Urbanation’s Condominium Market Survey. This quarterly Report tracks new, resale and future condominium projects. Urbanation also provides the development community with essential consulting services, which include site and topic specific market studies and surveys.